World Cup 2010

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[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] ParanoiDinHELL » Sun Jul 11, 2010 12:32 am

First things first - Awesome mural!

Then for the other approach, I'm asuming that the octopus is absolutely clueless about what is going on and I think it's a fair assumption that there is no hand of god (Maradonna was in SA at some of the forecasts afterall) pushing him towards one or the other. The chance that he gets so many matches right is minimal, which means that the chance that he's wrong for this match is enormous.
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[FnG] Rotten_Emu
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Rotten_Emu » Sun Jul 11, 2010 10:32 am

[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL wrote:Which means that the chance that he's wrong for this match is enormous.


Assuming that both teams are equally matched the chance that he's right (or wrong) this time is 50%. This doesn't change when he's had 7 good guesses. All in all, last time around he guessed wrong the last finals around and I do believe there is a 'forcing hand' in play. That of the owners. Because at some point the octopus must've learned this behaviour. You don't just go 'hm lets put two cases of food in the water and place a flag on it' in all probability it went like this: "Hm, nobody wants to see this bloody octopus, but how do we make an octopus interesting to see? Isn't soccer on somewhere?"

Anyways, chances 50/50 that The Netherlands wins/loses. Of course this is heavily offset by the fact that they are way better than Spain, because after all, Soccer is not a game of chance (mostly) but of skill.

Gut feeling says: The Netherlands are FIFA World Champions by 2300 hours tonight, then again I have a predominantly Orange gut.
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Marksman » Sun Jul 11, 2010 11:46 am

Teh Emu-lator wrote:... then again I have a predominantly Orange gut.
With a selectively-placed mussel inside it. :wink:
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[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] ParanoiDinHELL » Sun Jul 11, 2010 2:01 pm

[FnG] Rotten_Emu wrote:
[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL wrote:Which means that the chance that he's wrong for this match is enormous.


Assuming that both teams are equally matched the chance that he's right (or wrong) this time is 50%.


If you take this time at itself, that's right offcourse. I did mean that he's been wrong so often in a row that the chances that he'll have the next one right too are only slimming, as a sequence.

Anyway, brilliant marketing
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] «°èXé°» » Sun Jul 11, 2010 2:18 pm

Yep, you're right that normally the chance that he correctly forecasts today's winner is 50 %. And when looking at the sequence of guesses, the probability of guessing another game right is declinig as well.

My numbers tried to make another point: Hypothesis = "The octopus is just plain dumb and therefore has a chance of 50 % to guess the winner in each match." The statistical approach then was to determine what are the chances that he got all the seven games right just by guessing randomly (= toss a coin). Those were the 0,78125 % (@ 2 % significance); so you could argue that it's not just chance but Paul's "talent" (whatever that is).

The hypothesis has proven wrong - so far at least. :wink:


btw: Go get the Spaniards! :)
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[FnG] Da Kril
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Da Kril » Sun Jul 11, 2010 2:52 pm

Only about five hours away now — best of luck and best wishes to the Netherlands team.
I will be watching and rooting. Will Torres and Fabregas finally get some serious pitch time, or is it all up to David Villa, Iniesta and Xavi?
Can the big orange cut through the withering "keep-away" passing exhibition that Spain used on Germany?
These questions (and more) to be answered shortly...

[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL wrote:Anyway, brilliant marketing
Really? What are they selling?


Go Netherlands, :woot:
--kril out-- :partyhat:
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Mez » Sun Jul 11, 2010 8:03 pm

Yup, 1 in 128 would have got all 7 of the 50:50 independent events correct.
Perhaps zoo owners should take note for Euro 2012 - they would only need about a thousand animals to almost guarantee some free publicity! ;)

Anyway, here's hoping for a stylish final and no penalty shoot-out! 8)

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Oranje boven!

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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] 7uh » Sun Jul 11, 2010 11:18 pm

:bigcry:
Sorry, guys. I was rooting for ya ... (which may have been the problem) :oops:

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[FnG] ParanoiDinHELL
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] ParanoiDinHELL » Mon Jul 12, 2010 11:04 am

[FnG] Da Kril wrote:Really? What are they selling?


Tickets, lots of tickets. Or did you think this all started out while one of theyr employees discovered his forecasting genious and figured it would be best to share something like that with the world? :)

Anyway, deserved win from Spain I suppose, still somewhat gutted that it didn't happen again. Not the best of matches, but I was used to winning not the best of matches... Ah well, see you at the EC! ;)
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby The Phantom » Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:09 pm

I wanna do kungfu fightiiing! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7WhREkAdM8
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Marksman » Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:37 pm

Hell's teeth that was a dreadful game last night. :|
I read an article before the weekend in which someone in the Dutch camp was talking about playing dirty in order to get the win. They certainly did a), even if they didn't achieve b). :(

Rather spoiled it for me, I didn't think either team would resort to those kind of tactics. Congrats to Spain, of course, marvellous piece of history for them, it's just a pity the tournament didn't go out with more of a bang.
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] JinX-D » Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:26 pm

I agree that not all tackles were by the book, but that was one card happy ref, those darn English... :gripe: ;)
And we should've won it, I feel stolen!

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[FnG] Lambik
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] Lambik » Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:46 pm

I think the dutchies turned the referee against them with the extreme foul play in the first half hour,
for a moment I thought I was looking at Karate-Kid IV.
Pitty, the dutch players should have believed more in their own capabilities,
then turning into street-fight-style of football.

Congratz to Spain ofcourse, and congratz to NL for being 2nd of the world,
which for this small country is still quite something big to achieve.
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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] 7uh » Mon Jul 12, 2010 4:48 pm

[FnG] JinX-D wrote:I agree that not all tackles were by the book, but that was one card happy ref, those darn English... :gripe: ;)

It's interesting, because my understanding was that FIFA awarded that ref the final largely because he had done a good job refereeing other WC games without having to hand out bunches of cards ... I guess he was saving them up ... :?

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Re: World Cup 2010

Postby [FnG] «°èXé°» » Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:03 pm

Well, I don't think that the referee handed out unjustified yellow cards... It was not a very fair game, in the first 60 minutes or so at least. I was actually surprised that the sending-off did not happen until the extra time.
That Spanish referee, Alberto Undiano (who reffed Germany - Serbia), certainly showed a significantly lower level of tolerance in that respect. Howard Webb was on a more "normal" level, although a good bit too tolerant IMHO.



PS: Paul was right again ... ! :neutral:
:-)


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